The overheated economy has started to cool. Corporate giants are announcing layoffs, and the nation's jobless rate is rising. Meanwhile, the pace of new-job creation has slowed.
As the employment market weakens, "the power will shift back to companies" and away from job seekers, says John Sullivan, a San Francisco State University human-resources professor.
So how should you manage your career at a current or potential employer?
Here are some smart moves, culled from interviews with more than a dozen career counselors, staffing specialists, executive recruiters and chief executive officers of online job boards:
1. Do a better job of demonstrating your critical skills.
You will have greater luck staying employed or finding a new job if you thoroughly document "that your work makes a difference," suggests Marilyn Moats Kennedy, a career coach in Wilmette, Ill.
A well-crafted personal Web site, for example, can showcase your accomplishments. Even if you're not looking for a job, you should have a site, just as you would keep an updated resume.
Avoid outright boasting, however. Taking excess credit for a team effort can hurt, too. "How well one communicates [work achievements] is a difficult thing" to do, says David Russo, 56, a former human-resources chief at SAS Institute, a Cary, N.C., software company that has earned kudos for lavish perks and low turnover.
Mr. Russo was recruited by a nearby dot-com for its top human-resources post after word spread that he was taking early retirement in late 1999. Because SAS had twice landed on Fortune's list of the nation's 100 best companies to work for, he had a reputation for being the person "with the accountability and responsibility" for the popular benefits programs, he recalls.
During negotiations with the new employer, he took some credit for SAS's accomplishments but didn't exaggerate his role. The achievements required "a dedicated and committed management team and a strong supporting staff," he says.
2. Use finesse to seek bigger bucks.
You probably resent new hires with similar qualifications getting higher pay than you. But demanding more money or a promotion just because you've worked at your company longer won't suffice these days.
Learn what you should be making by investigating similar jobs, and even landing some offers. You can also try tracking the number of internal and external openings in your field and how long they take to fill.
External offers mean "you know what you're worth," says Hal Reiter, president and CEO of Herbert Mines Associates, a New York search firm. "Try to be in the top quartile of the marketplace for your job."
But a cocky solicitation of counteroffers might backfire. Ask your human-resources officials whether "your manager plays the game," Dr. Sullivan advises. "Sometimes, they will even run a trial balloon by the manager for you so that you don't have to do it face to face."
3. Think twice before quitting out of anger.
Many people jump ship merely because they're mad at their supervisor -- something that's harder to do in a softer economy. And a negative attitude toward your last boss may persuade a potential employer that you are chronically unhappy.
4. Exploit the Internet's job-finding prowess in new ways.
About 42 percent of 753 laid-off managers landed interviews after posting their resumes or retrieving job listings online, according to a new survey by outplacement consultants Lee Hecht Harrison. That's up from 20 percent in 1997.
Still, with an estimated 40,000 job boards, you must use the Internet creatively. Some sites let you post a "confidential" resume accessible only to those businesses where you most yearn to work. Big career sites provide a vast array of vacancies and employer data. Highly specialized job boards, however, may be more suited to your needs.
5. Do extensive homework before joining a jittery industry, such as the dot-com world.
Fully investigate a company's prospects from an investor's viewpoint before you consider a specific job. Mr. Russo, the dot-com executive, says he was disappointed to learn that he and his new employer "had a totally different perspective on the value of people issues in the business." The company laid off nearly 200 of its 950 staffers in November.
Some new hires -- and their would-be employers -- occasionally perform inadequate due diligence because they get caught up with "the hubris of the possibility of success," Mr. Russo adds.
He says the next time he'll widen his fact-finding network and expand his research.
6. Don't panic prematurely.
Despite the slowing economy, many job markets remain tight and will stay so during 2001. And "labor shortages will continue for the next 10 years," predicts Kate Wendleton, a New York career coach and founder of the Five O'Clock Club, a job-search strategy group. "There's still plenty of movement, and there still are plenty of jobs."
