"Why," you ask, "should I spend my time reading dull labor market information?" Perhaps I am not being fair to you, but that would be the question I would be asking myself about now.
My response to you is that reading this article will be good for your career health. I say this because it will encourage you to think about your long-term place in the workforce-and how to take advantage of the trends that are beyond your control. You will be affected by these trends, and you ignore them only at great risk to your future earning power and satisfaction.
For example, the information in this article will tell you that many of the fastest growing jobs require training or education beyond high school-but not necessarily a four-year college degree. It will inform you of the enormous increase in earnings for those with more education and training. It will encourage you to consider that some industries offer more growth potential than others-and that your career planning and job seeking should corner the industry you select just as carefully as the occupation. This article presents many other thought-provoking things to consider, things that can make a big difference to you in the future.
So consider reading it like a good novel. Well, perhaps that's asking too much, but I do encourage you to read it carefully-and consider how you can use this information to make better long-term career and life plans.
On Overview of Major Trends
The information in this article is based on content of "the Occupational Outlook Handbook, published the U.S. Department of Labor.
- Over the period under study, employment is projected to increase by 17.7 million or 14 percent. This is slower than the 24 percent increase attained during the 11 -year period preceding this study, when the economy added 24.6 million jobs.
- Wage and salary worker employment will account for 95 percent of this increase. In addition, the number of self-employed workers is expected to increase by 950,000, to 11.6 million, while the number of unpaid family workers will decline.
- oEmployment growth is projected to be highly concentrated by industry. The services and retail trade industries will account for 16.2 million out of a total projected growth of 16.8 million wage and salary jobs. Business, health, and education services will account for 70 percent of the growth-9.2 million out of 13.6 million jobs-within services.
- oHealth care services will account for almost one-fifth of all job growth. Factors contributing to continued growth in this industry include the aging population, which will continue to require more services, and the increased use of innovative medical technology for intensive diagnosis and treatment. Patients will increasingly be shifted out of hospitals and into outpatient facilities, nursing homes, and home health care in an attempt to contain costs.
- oThe personnel supply services industry, which provides temporary help to employers in other industries, is projected to add 1.3 million jobs. Temporary workers tend to have low wages, low job stability, and poor job benefits.
The goods-producing sector faces declining employment in two of its four industries: manufacturing and mining. Employment in the other two industries-construction, and agriculture, forestry, and fishing-is expected to increase.
Opportunities Will Come from Replacement as Well as Growth
- Employment in manufacturing is expected to continue to decline, losing 1.3 million jobs. Operators, fabricators, and laborers and precision production, craft, and repair occupations are expected to account for more than 1 million of these lost jobs. Systems analysis and other computer-related occupations in manufacturing sector are expected to increase.
Opportunities in large occupations are enhanced by the additional job openings resulting from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation. Some workers leave occupations as they are promoted or change careers; others stop working to return to school, assume household responsibilities, or retire.
Replacement needs are greater in occupations with low status, low training requirements, and a high proportion of young and part-time workers.
Replacement needs will account for 29.4 million job openings, far more than 17.7 million openings projected to arise from employment growth.
- Employment in professional specialty occupations is projected to increase at a faster rate than any other major occupational group.
- Among the major occupational groups, employment in professional specialty occupations is also projected to account for the most job growth.
- Professional specialty occupations-which require high educational attainment and offer high earnings-and service occupations-which require lower educational attainment and offer lower earnings-are expected to account for more than half of all job growth.
- Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations are the only major occupational group projected to decline. All job openings in this group will stem from replacement needs.
- Office automation is expected to have a significant effect on many individual administrative and clerical support occupations.
- Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment.
- The 20 occupations accounting for half of all job growth tend to be large in size rather than fast-growing. Three health care occupations are in the top 10 and three education-related occupations are in the second 10.
- Many of the fastest growing occupations are concentrated in health services, which is expected to increase more than twice as fast as the economy as a whole. Personal and healthcare aides and home health aides are expected to be in demand to provide personal and physical care for an increasing number of elderly people and for persons who are recovering from surgery and other serious health conditions. This is occurring as hospitals and insurance companies mandate shorter stays for recovery to coontain costs
- Employment of computer engineers and systems analysts is expected to grow rapidly to satisfy expending needs in scientific research and applications of computer technology in business and industry.
- Farmers, garment sewing machine operators, and private household cleaners and servants are examples of occupations that will lose employment because of declining industry employment.
- Many declining occupations are affected by structural changes, resulting from technological advances, organizational changes, and other factors that affect the employment of workers. For example, the use of typists and word processors is expected to decline s substantially because of productivity improvements resulting from office automation and the increased use of word processing equipment by professional and managerial employees.
- Workers in jobs with low education and training requirements tend to have greater occupational mobility. Consequently, these jobs will provide a larger than proportional share of all job openings stemming from replacement needs.
- Jobs requiring the most education and training will grow faster than jobs with lower education and training requirements.
- Occupations that require a bachelor's degree or above will average 23 percent growth-- almost double the 12 percent growth projected for occupations that require less education and training.
- Occupations that pay above-average wages are projected to grow faster than occupations with below-average wages. Jobs with above-average wages are expected to account for 60 percent of employment growth. Jobs with higher earnings often require higher levels of education and training.
- Education is important in getting a high-paying job. However, many occupations-for example, registered nurses, blue-collar worker supervisors, electrical and electronic technicians/technologists, carpenters, and police and detectives-do not require a college degree, yet offer higher than average earnings.
- Groups in the labor force with lower than average educational attainment, including Hispanics and blacks, will continue to have difficulty obtaining a share of the high-paying jobs that is consistent with their share of the labor force, unless their educational attainment rises. Although high-paying jobs will be available without college training, most jobs that pay above-average wages will require a college degree.
- Educational services are projected to increase by 2.2 million jobs and account for one out of every eight jobs that will be added to the economy. Most jobs will be for teachers, who are projected to account for about 20 percent of all jobs available for college graduates.
- Projected employment growth of the occupations whose earnings rank in the top quartile in the nation was highly concentrated. Eight of the 146 occupations will account for about half of the new jobs: registered nurses, systems analysts, blue-collar worker supervisors, general managers and top executives, and four teaching occupations-elementary school teachers, secondary school teachers, college faculty, and special education teachers.
- The distribution of jobs by education and training and earnings will change little, with jobs requiring the least amount of education and training, and generally offering low pay, continuing to account for about 4 of every 10 jobs.
- Jobs that require moderate-length and short-term training and experience (the two categories requiring the least amount of education and training) will provide over half of total job openings.
- Spurred by the growing proportion of women who work, the labor force will grow slightly faster.
oWomen, as a result of a faster rate of growth than men, are projected to represent a slightly greater portion of the labor force-increasing from 46 to 48 percent.
- The number of men in the labor force is projected to grow, but at a slower rate than in the past, in part reflecting declining employment in good-paying production jobs in manufacturing and a continued shift in demand for workers from the goods-producing sector to the service-producing sector. Men with less education and training may find it increasingly difficult to obtain jobs consistent with their experience.
- Despite relatively slow growth, resulting in declining share of the labor force, white non-Hispanics wiII still make the vast majority of workers.
One of the books in the "America's Top Jobs" series is America's 50 Fastest Growing Jobs. In that book, I put together a variety of information on labor market trends that I think are important for you to consider. I have included similar information this section, since it provides a good overview of labor mark trends in general and how they are likely to affect you.
The information is divided into three major sections. The first presents a general review of important labor market trends. Next comes information on jobs that are among the fastest growing in terms of percentage growth or in largest numbers of jobs created. The third section includes a variety of charts and information that might interest you. I assume that you are either considering various career alternatives or looking for a better job, I've selected labor market details most important for you to consider for these purposes.
Without a doubt, the best information we have on the labor market comes from governmental sources. Thousands of pages of labor market information are published each year in various government agencies-entirely too much for most people. I've sifted through much of this information and selected a few things that will be of particular importance to you and present them here for you to ponder.
In reviewing this, you will notice that much of the information is based on data collected a few years back. Even so, this is useful information since it clearly points out long-term trends that have already affected you, whether or not you are fully aware of them. Basic labor market trends are typically ones that do not shift quickly, and they are often accurately predicted by our friends at the U.S. Department of Labor.
