A rumored merger between General Motors and Chrysler would be unlikely to produce major savings for their combined auto operations, but could benefit stronger suppliers, an analyst says.

GM and CerberusCapital Management are discussing a deal that would combine the number one and number three US automakers.

The talks hit a snag over the question of how to value Chrysler. Cerberus bought an 80% stake in the automaker for about $7.4 billion in 2007, but auto sales have dropped sharply since.

Calyon Securities analyst Mark Warnsman said in a note to clients that the winners from any such dealer could be suppliers rather than the merged auto companies.

“We are skeptical of major incremental savings resulting from a combination,” Warnsman said. “We do not see a combined company as being more effective in reducing those structural costs than two stand-alone enterprises.”

However, “by joining with Chrysler, GM could reinforce its market-leading position in the US, potentially reducing the risk of lost consumer confidence.”

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