Quarterly Survey Reveals Areas Expecting the Largest Employment Growth and Losses
"This is an agricultural base, a huge apple-growing region," says Bill Cook, director of community and economic development for Yakima. "Last year's apple harvest was huge, and it helped carry employment through the winter. Even in a normal economic year that wouldn't happen."
Look in Northwest, Texas
Cities in the Pacific Northwest and Texas have the best employment outlook for April through June, while cities in the the Southeast have the weakest, according to the study.
Manpower's Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions of increasing or decreasing their numbers of employees. Each employer was asked: "How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2009 compared with the current quarter?" The answer is the net employment outlook -- the difference between employers who plan to increase and those who plan to decrease.
Of the 31,800 public and private sector employers surveyed in 201 metropolitan areas throughout the U.S., 15% anticipated increases in hiring, 14% said they'd likely decrease staff, and 67% foresaw no change.
Five Florida cities came in among the 10 weakest metropolitan areas for employment outlook. That's largely because of the downturn in the construction industry there, combined with the slowdown in tourism.
"Hospitality was hit hard," says Michael Doyle, vice president and general manager of Manpower's Southeast region. "People aren't traveling to Florida, and all the service industries, like hotels, rental cars and restaurants, are affected. Everything gets hit when fewer people come to visit."
Industry Bright Spots
Meanwhile, Anchorage, Alaska, has the third-strongest employment outlook, thanks to a strong showing in health care. That sector has added nearly 2,700 jobs since 2003 and employs close to 15,000 people. Also, Target just opened in Anchorage, and the town will soon get its first Walgreens and Kohl's.
Among industries nationwide, leisure and hospitality is expected to add the most positions. Across the country, employers expect a 14% net employment gain in the sector, but not because Americans are going on vacation. Rather, they are dining at inexpensive restaurants like McDonald's, Chili's, and the Olive Garden, which will all have to beef up their staffs.
Business services -- accountants and lawyers -- also expect to see a boost in hiring in the next quarter, with a +9% net employment outlook. Also in that group are data processors, thanks largely to President Obama's push to get health care records digitized.
Manufacturing of durable goods will take the hardest hit, particularly in the Southeast. "The bulk of what the South is known for is manufacturing, and that's on a decline because of emerging markets and because of the general lack of need," says Doyle. "That's the whole theme in the South."
