Key to a secure career, say futurists and industry observers, is to perceive change as positive and be able to turn new developments into opportunities. In fact, change in itself will be a growth industry, says Glen Hiemstra, a futurist in Kirkland, Wash.
"If you want to position yourself for the future, learn how to help organizations and teams adapt to rapid change," says Mr. Hiemstra, founder and CEO of futurist.com. "There will be a lot of growth in this area because all the evidence points to continuing acceleration of change."
Overall, employment is expected to increase 14% by 2008 and the supply of workers will grow 12%, slower than during the previous 10-year period. Jobs will be plentiful, especially for professionals. Due to shortages, employers will seek out women, minorities, welfare recipients, retired seniors and even prisoners to fill openings.
"Employment will stay strong for at least another decade," says Roger Herman, a management consultant and futurist with the Herman Group in Greensboro, N.C. "There will be a continuing need for people at all levels and in all industries."
Certain industries are going to grow rapidly, especially those in the services area, such as personnel or health-care supply agencies or computer training and repair businesses. Such industries will account for virtually all job growth through 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The nation also will grow even more dependent on technology. Between 1998 and 2008, employment in computer and data processing services will swell by 117%, faster than any other industry.
As a manager, having a background in the industry you wish to enter will be less important than leadership and management skills, says Mr. Herman. "Employers are more willing to let people move from industry to industry," he says. "Partly, it's because they don't have any choice."
Taking advantage of opportunity is another secret to career success. In 1999, the Smithsonian Institution in Washington D.C., spun off Smithsonian Business Ventures, a for-profit arm designed to support the nonprofit museum. Its new CEO, Gary Beer, has never worked in the museum industry, one of the nation's fastest-growing fields. But Mr. Beer, the former CEO of the Sundance Group, a for-profit arm of the Sundance organization formed by Robert Redford, sensed the Smithsonian job would be an "opportunity of a lifetime."
"We are the largest nonprofit retailer in the U.S. cultural industry," says the 49-year-old. As for the museum field itself, "it's booming," says Mr. Beer. "For the college student or career changer, it's a terrific industry."
The following are some fast-growing occupations and ways to take advantage of them:
Computers and Data Processing Services
Escalating reliance on computers and personal communication devices means the addition of more than 1.8 million jobs in this sector in the coming eight years, the BLS reports. Of the 10 fastest-growing occupations, five are computer related.
They include:
- computer engineers,
- computer support specialists,
- systems analysts,
- database administrators and
- desktop publishing specialists.
Managers needn't be computer experts to take advantage of the explosive growth in this field. IT forms "a common thread that allows you to move between industries and to broaden your career," says Mr. Herman.
ITAA's study shows that employers place high value on nontechnical skills such as communication, problem-solving and analytic abilities, flexibility and the ability to learn quickly.
"Someone who's nontechnical can make the jump into the high-tech world," says Tinabeth Burton, ITAA's vice president for communications. "Because of the shortages and the need, you can make yourself a valuable commodity in this market, which translates to future opportunities and growth potential."
Moreover, executives without IT skills can start e-businesses or other firms that rely on computer technology. When interviewing for a futurist consulting assignment in the early 1990s, Mr. Hiemstra says he was asked what he planned to learn in the next six months. He told the employer he'd learn how to create a Web site. The result was futurist.com, a project that cost him $5,000 and has "paid for itself a zillion times," he says. "By answering that question, I was able to position myself for what was coming in the economy."
Bill Dunkelberg, economist for the National Federation of Independent Business and a professor of business at Temple University in Philadelphia, is another non-IT person who has started a computer-based business. Last summer, Mr. Dunkelberg decided to create an online retailer for consumers who want clothes that fit. The result is made4me.com, a Philadelphia-based Web site that employs a staff of 13.
"There is no new way to make clothes," says Mr. Dunkelberg. "What's new is how we collect the information and make it available and possible to absolutely everyone."
Health Services and Residential Care
As the population ages, abundant opportunities will arise in two fast-growing industries: health services and in residential care. The health-services field will grow by 67%, and the residential-care industry will swell 57% by 2008, reports the BLS. Four of the 10 fastest-growing occupations relate to these industries. For instance, the BLS ranks personal care and home-health aides as the seventh-fastest-growing occupation and as one of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth.
National health expenditures will increase for many reasons, including more private health-insurance underwriting, slowdowns in managed-care enrollment, a movement toward less restrictive forms of managed care and continued technological advances. Areas within health care that will expand, according to Kathleen O'Connor, a health-care industry analyst in Seattle are:
the pharmaceutical industry as drugs based on the human genome project are developed;
Internet-related health-care companies, which haven't evolved yet;
health-care information, particularly in areas regarding senior health care; and
long-term care insurance programs.
"There aren't enough long-term insurance products out there," she says. "Some entrepreneurial person needs to work with insurance companies to address that."
The growing elderly and aging baby-boom population will create demand for products and services that aren't developed yet, says Mr. Hiemstra. For instance, baby-boomers will insist on better service than they see their parents receiving, says Ms. O'Connor.
"Baby boomers will wreak havoc" on the assisted living and nursing home industry, she says, "just like they wreaked havoc on every other system they've gone through. They're going to have higher expectations than their parents'." Mr. Herman predicts the emergence of an "entire industry" providing graduated levels of care to seniors, ranging from light health-care and heavy personal service to intense health-care and minimal personal service.
Personnel Supply Services
Staffing industry revenues tripled during the decade to $64.3 billion in 1999 compared to $20 billion in 1990, according to the American Staffing Association in Alexandria, Va. By 2008, industry employment should grow 43% to 4,623,000, making it the largest of the 10 fastest-growing industries, reports the BLS.
Many of these employees are "portfolio" workers -- professionals and executives who want more control over their destinies and are willing to bet on their skills for job security, says Richard Wahlquist, executive vice president of the ASA. These employees go from job to job, often earning more than they did as permanent staffers. The payroll for temporary professionals -- including accountants, attorneys and paralegals, sales and marketing professionals, and managers -- has increased more than eightfold since 1991, reports the ASA. Now, more than 150,000 professional specialty employees, 150,000 executives and managers, and 115,000 sales and marketing professionals are working in temporary jobs each day.
Opportunities also exist at staffing firms for professionals who help interim employees identify their skills and match them with openings and those who work with client firms to identify staffing needs, says Mr. Wahlquist.
Museums, Botanical and Zoological Gardens
Museum visits nearly doubled in the past decade, to 850 million annually in 1999 from 486 million, says Edward Abel, president and CEO of the American Association of Museums in Washington, D.C. Thanks to increased funding, facilities have been expanding to accommodate larger collections and enlarge spaces for current collections. This means larger and multilevel management staffs, more professionals in marketing, information technology, public relations, finance and administration, and more support staff, such as security and information personnel, says Mr. Abel. By 2008, the industry should have 131,000 employees, a 42% increase from 1998, the BLS reports.
Security and Commodity Brokers
In 1999, 78.7 million shareholders and 48% of all U.S. households owned stocks, compared to 52.3 million shareholders and 33% of households in 1989, reports the Securities Industry Association in Washington, D.C. This is translating to a 40% employment growth for securities and commodity brokers, to 900,000 by 2008, the BLS reports.
In the U.S., employees are wealthier and have more money to invest because wages have risen while inflation stayed low during the decade. Baby boomers are at peak earning years and setting aside money for retirement. They also are inheriting their parents' assets in one of the greatest transfers of wealth ever seen, says Jim Spellman, a SIA spokesman. Overall, securities industry revenues have increased to an estimated $243 billion in 2000 from $54 billion in 1990.
With more products to choose from and more money to invest, customers are asking for more advice, says Mr. Spellman. This is creating demand for financial advisory professionals and shifting security firms' revenues from commissions to fees for asset management.
Management and Public Relations
The number of managers and public-relations experts is expected to grow 45% to 1.5 million employees by 2008. More and different managers will be needed because employment is growing and becoming more geographically dispersed, says Eric Greenberg, director of management studies for the American Management Association in New York.
"We have a work force that's always in flux as companies constantly hire and fire as they adjust to workforce conditions," says Mr. Greenberg. "The job of getting work done through people, which is the definition of management, becomes more daunting when you're constantly losing people."
Meanwhile, the explosion in broadcast and Internet media outlets is creating demand for more public relations pros to manage the release of information, says Catherine Bolton, chief public relations officer for the Public Relations Society of America in New York.
