In part, this group's reduced pace of job growth is attributable to the smaller employment increase in wholesale and retail trade, which employs the majority of marketing and sales workers. This slowing of employment growth in wholesale trade is based partly on the expectation that manufacturers will increasingly use new warehouse management systems and distribute their products directly to retailers as they take advantage of reductions in the cost of shipping goods. Both wholesale trade and the much larger retail sector are expected to experience increased productivity as the result of computerized inventory control, which will lessen the overall demand for labor.
Employment growth of marketing and sales workers also is expected in the services industry division and in finance, insurance, and real estate.
Administrative Support Occupations, Including Clerical
The number of workers in administrative support occupations, including clerical-the largest occupational group -is projected to grow by 4 percent. This is in marked contrast to the performance in the past when this group grew as fast as the average for all occupations. Consequently, the share of total employment represented by administrative support workers, which held steady during the 1983-94 period, is projected to decline significantly from 18.2 percent to 16.7 percent in the target year.
Many detailed occupations in this group also are expected to decline instead of expanding as they did previously. Among them are computer and peripheral equipment operators; mail clerks and messengers; file clerks; and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks, all of which are expected to be affected by continued technological change and further developments in office automation.
Occupations that involve a great deal of contact with people are not affected significantly by changes in technology and are projected to have average or higher than average rates of growth. Among these occupations are hotel desk clerks, receptionists and information clerks, and teacher aids and educational assistants. The substantial job growth for administrative support operations, including clerical, in the services industry division is expected to be partially offset by projected declines in every other major industry division, the largest of which are in government and manufacturing.
Service Occupations
Employment in service occupations is projected to grow by 23 percent, the second largest numerical gain among the major occupational groups. The proportion of total employment represented by these workers is expected to increase significantly, and to account for the largest share of total employment -17.2 percent. Nearly 7 in 10 of the additional jobs projected are in the rapidly growing services industry division, led by health services, social services, and business services.
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations are projected to decline. Within this major group, job losses for farm managers, farm workers, and forestry and logging occupations are expected to be partially offset by job gains for gardening, nursery, greenhouse, and lawn service occupations, which are largely found in the rapidly growing segment of agricultural services that provides nursery products and gardening and lawn services. The share of total employment represented by agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations is expected to continue to decline and to account for only 2.5 percent of all jobs.
Other Groups
Employment in precision production, craft, and repair occupations is projected to increase by 6 percent from 1994 to 2005. This much slower average growth rate is a continuation of the trend over the 1994 period, during which this group expanded by 10 percent added 1.3 million jobs. These workers are expected to account for 10.3 percent of total employment in 2005-down from 11.1 cent on 1994.
Most of the job growth within the major occupational groups is projected to occur among blue-collar worker supervisors; construction trade workers, and mechanics, installers, and repairers. These job categories also registered large increases during. The precision production occupations, which are highly concentrated in manufacturing, are expected to decline due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing group employment. The large overall projected job losses for precision production, craft, and repair occupations in manufacturing sector are expected to be offset primarily by the significant gain in services industry.
The number of operators, fabricators, and laborers is expected to increase by just 4 percent.
The manufacturing sector is expected to lose more jobs for operators, fabricators, and laborers as a result of the continuing automation of their duties and the overall projected decline in manufacturing employment. However, the decline in this sector is expected to be more than offset by gains in service, transportation, and construction.
