There will always be some openings for new people, even in slower-growing or declining jobs. Some of these jobs are numerous and will create many openings due to retirement, people leaving the field, and other reasons. My point is that you should consider a slower-growing field if that is really what you are interested in.
Occupations with the Largest Number of Openings
Most of the occupations with the largest increases in numbers of jobs are concentrated in three industries that are expected to provide nearly half of the total growth in wage and salary jobs: retail trade, health services, and educational services. Within retail trade, employment of sales persons, retailers, cashiers, waiters, waitresses, food preparation workers, marketing and sales worker supervisors, and food service and lodging managers is expected to grow substantially. All of these occupations also had large employment increases from 1983 to 1994.
The health services sector is expected to provide many opportunities for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants, home health aides, and personal and home care aides. (The last two also are on the list of the fastest-growing occupations.) Of the occupations in this group, only registered nurses and home health aides were also on the list of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth between 1983 and 1994.
The public and private education industry is projected to provide large employment increases for elementary school teachers, secondary school teachers, teacher aides and educational assistants, and special education teachers.
The remaining occupations are found in a wide variety of industries throughout the economy, and their growth, as a consequence, is dependent upon many factors. More than 6 in 10 new jobs for general managers and top executives will be in the services sector. Employment for systems analysts is expected to grow with the continued spread of computer technology. Jobs for receptionists and information clerks are projected to increase significantly because such workers interact a great deal with people and their duties are difficult to automate.
The number of child-care workers, who experienced a large employment increase in the past, is expected to continue to expand significantly as a result of anticipated growth in the number of young children and a change in the type of child-care arrangements parents choose. The switch from informal arrangements with family or friends to formal child care is projected to continue. Other large and slower-growing occupations that are expected to provide numerous additional jobs are truck drivers, light and heavy; janitors and cleaners; maintenance repairers, general utility; and secretaries, except legal and medical.
An interesting contrast exists between the total increase in employment from those occupations that are projected as the fastest-growing and the increase from those projected to account for the largest numerical increases .The first group accounts for 18 percent of the projected overall growth in employment, while the second accounts for almost 55 percent (several occupations are included in both groups).
Educational requirements and median weekly earning workers vary widely among the 30 occupations that are projected to grow the most rapidly and the 30 occupations with the large numerical increases. About one-half of the occupations is in education or training beyond high school. Occupations that generally require a bachelor's degree or more educated are concentrated in the professional specialty group. Examples of occupations in this category include computer engineers, systems analysts, operations research analysts, physical therapists, occupational therapists, and elementary and secondary school teachers.
Several occupations require specific formal training obtained in public and private institutions, including community and junior colleges, which offer occupational-oriented training programs. About half of these occupations had higher than average earnings including registered nurses, paralegals, medical records technicians, surgical technicians, and dental hygienists.
Employment Decreases
Decreases in industry employment and changes in occupational staffing patterns are expected to reduce the demand for workers in several occupations. This section focuses on those occupations with the largest job declines rather than on those with the fastest rates of decline.
Industry employment change is the major cause of projected employment decreases for farmers; sewing machine operators; electrical and electronic assemblers; and cleaners and servants, private households. Declining occupations that are expected to be affected almost equally by industry employment changes and by occupational structure changes include farm workers, central office and PBX installers and repairers, central office operators, station installers and repairers, and directory assistance operators.
Most of the other declining occupations are affected more by occupational structure changes-which are the result of technological advances, organizational changes, and other factors that affect the use of workers-than by industry employment changes. The large drop in employment for bartenders in the eating and drinking places industry is attributable to the projected decline in the consumption of alcoholic beverages outside of the home.
Employment of typists and word processors is expected to decrease substantially across all industries, because of productivity improvements resulting from office automation and the increased use of word processing equipment by professional and managerial employees. Data entry keyers, except composing, and personnel clerks, except payroll and timekeeping, also are expected to continue their long-run employment losses.
Several other occupations-all of which registered employment increases during the 1980s-are projected to decline due to that much greater impact of office automation. Among these are bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks; duplicating, mail, and other office machine operators; billing, posting, and calculating machine operators; and file clerks. The demand for computer operators (except peripheral equipment, which increased modestly ) is expected to fall, because these employees work mainly with large computer systems-the part of the overall computer market that is projected to slow down. Employment for bank tellers is expected to decline because of increased use of automated teller machines, terminals, and other electronic equipment for customer fund transactions.
Several blue-collar occupations in manufacturing are expected to decline because of changes in the occupational structure of many of the detailed industries in that sector. For example, the installation of computer-controlled technology, including advanced systems that combine production tasks and link machines, will reduce the demand for machine forming operators and tenders, metal and plastic, and for machine tool cutting operators and tenders, metal and plastic.
Laser inspection devices and other automated inspection equipment are expected to reduce the demand for inspectors, testers, and graders, precision, an occupation for which employment also decreased during the 1980s. Automated material moving equipment will reduce employment for freight, stock, and material movers. Similarly, the number of machine feeders and offbearers is projected to decline as a result of the introduction of more computer-controlled equipment and machinery that loads and unloads products automatically. Greater use of numerical-controlled machine tools and changes in production methods is expected to lessen demand for lathe and turning machine tool setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic.
A few occupations are expected to be adversely affected by changes in business practices and other factors. For example, the number of service station attendants will continue to decline because most gas stations no longer provide automobile maintenance services. Also, the demand for station installers and repairers of telephone will fall due to a continuation of a trend toward customer installation of telephones.
Even More Jobs Opportunities Come from Replacements
In addition to occupational employment growth, another aspect of the demand for workers is the need to replace workers who leave their jobs to enter other occupations, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons. Job openings resulting from replacement needs are very important because, in most occupations, they exceed those resulting from employment growth. Even occupations that are projected to decline provide some job openings.
The measurement of replacement needs is very complex because there is a continuous movement of workers into and out of occupations. The measure used in this discussion is based on net change in employment in each age cohort over the projected period. Consequently, net replacements do measure all workers who leave an occupation. These net replacements understate the total number of job openings in an occupation because they relate only to the difference between the number of experienced workers who enter and the number who leave that occupation.
