The coming changes have important implications for job seekers and the methods they use in finding jobs and advancing careers. Taken together, these changes point to both dangers and new opportunities in the world of work. Moreover, they emphasize the important role networking should play in the job search process during the coming decade.
While many of these changes will create crises for millions of individuals who are not prepared to function in a rapidly changing job market, the same changes present new challenges and exciting opportunities for those who understand how these changes will affect their own job and career future. Knowing what changes are likely to take place and preparing for these changes with the necessary knowledge, skills, and career development strategies will best enable you to turn seeming turbulence into new and hopefully exciting opportunities in the world of work.
LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY
CHANGE 1: Shortage of competent workers, with basic literacy and learning skills, creates serious problems in developing an economy with an adequate work force for the jobs of the years to come.
Given the double-whammy of over 20 million functionally illiterate adults - or 1/6 of the potential labor force unable to read/ write/ or perform simple computations - and the availability of fewer easily trainable young entry-level workers, a large portion of the work force is destined to remain at the lowest end of the job market despite the fact that over 15 million new jobs will be created in the years to come. Most of these adults will remain permanently unemployed or underemployed while major labor shortages exist as skill requirements rise rapidly for both entering and advancing within the work force, the nation's economic development will slow due to the lack of skilled workers. Both public and private sector programs will continue to expand, but their contribution to improving the overall skill levels of the work force is minimal. The American economy and work force begin showing classic signs of rapidly developing Second and Third World economies - potential economic performance outstrips the availability of a skilled work force.
CHANGE 2: A renewed and strong U.S. manufacturing sector will create few new jobs; service industries will be responsible for most new jobs throughout the years to come.
Despite popular notions of the "decline" of American manufacturing industries/ these industries are following the model of American agriculture - increased productivity accompanied by the increased displacement of workers. American manufacturing industry is becoming one of the strongest economic sectors in terms of production output but the weakest sector in terms of its contribution to job growth and job creation. At the same time/ American manufacturing is moving in the direction of what Peter Drucker calls a "production sharing system" by exporting the remaining high-cost/ labor intensive aspects of the industries. As large manufacturing companies rebound in the years to come by becoming productive with smaller and more highly skilled work forces, most new manufacturing jobs will develop among small manufacturing "job shops" employing fewer than 50 workers. The service industries - especially those in finance/ retail/ food/ and health - will continue to expand their work forces during the first half of the years to come. The second half of the years to come will witness major "productivity" and "management" improvement movements among service industries that developed among large manufacturing industries in the 1980s - a push for greater productivity because of (1) major labor shortages and (2) the adaptation of new technology to increasingly inefficient high-cost/ labor intensive service industries/ especially in the retail and health care industries.
CHANGE 3: Unemployment remains high, fluctuating between a low of 5 percent and a high of 12 percent
These fluctuations are attributed to a combination of boom and bust cycles in the economy as well as the persistence of structural unemployment exacerbated by millions of functionally illiterate adults on the periphery of the economy.
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES AND COMING CRISES
CHANGE 4: Government efforts to stimulate employment growth continues to be concentrated at the periphery of the job market.
Most government programs aimed at generating jobs and resolving unemployment problems will be aimed at the poor and unskilled. These groups also are the least likely to relocate, use job search skills, develop standard work habits, or be trained in skills for tomorrow's job market Given the mixed results from such programs and political pressures to experiment with some form of government-sponsored work-fare programs, the government finally develops programs to directly employ the poor and unskilled on government programs as well as contract-out this class of unemployed to government contractors who will provide them with education and training along with work experience.
CHANGE 5: The U.S. deficit declines and trade becomes more balanced as the U.S. regains a more competitive international trade and debt position due to improved productivity of U.S. manufacturing industries and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar.
International and domestic issues become closely tied to employment issues. Emphasis shifts to issues of unemployment, productivity, population growth, consumption, and regional conflicts in Third and Fourth World countries that threaten the stability of international markets and thus long-term "employment growth in the U.S. Trade competition is most intense with Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) in Asia that have low but rapidly rising labor costs.
CHANGE 6: A series of domestic and international crises - shocks and "unique events", some that already occur-red in the 1980s - emerge in the years to come to create new boom and bust cycles contributing to high rates of unemployment
The most likely sources for international crises will be problems developing among poor Third and Fourth World nations: energy and precious metals shortages due to a depletion of current stocks and regional military conflicts; the collapse of financial markets due to default on international debts; and dislocation of lucrative resource and consumption markets due to continued wars in the Middle East, South Africa, and South Asia. The most likely domestic crises will center on energy, water, and the environment. An energy crisis will once again revitalize the economies of Texas, Colorado, and Alaska. A new crisis - major water shortages - in the rapidly developing Southwest, will slow employment growth in the booming economies of Southern California and Arizona. Environmental issues, such as the greenhouse effect, acid rain, water pollution, and hazardous wastes, will emerge as important international and domestic crises.
