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Economy Looks Good, Job Market Great


Summary: The economy is looking great this October, and over all this year, with the job market back to where it belongs and growing.

A Strong Economy is Leading to More Hiring by Employers The economy is looking great this October, and over all this year. We've got 1.3 million employed, besting the pre-recession peak; we've seen nine months of over 200,000 workers added to the payroll, with October bringing in 214,000; we've seen the unemployment rate slip to 5.8 percent, a six year low. Reason to celebrate: blue skies ahead (figuratively at least).

We're seeing these employment gains in leisure and hospitality positions (52,000), retailer positions in anticipation of the holidays (27,100), oil and gas extraction positions (2,500), and, due to the high amount of importation of goods, warehouse and transportation positions (13,300 in October, 100,000 this year).

Despite the rise in hiring, there has not yet been a correspondent rise in wage gains. So inflation is down. Though the Federal Reserve took all this economic blossoming as their cue to end their stimulus campaign, nevertheless when employment rates begin to ascend, and inflation with it, the Fed may again take action and raise short-term interest rates. We're expecting this to happen in the second quarter of 2015.

With all the systems in place, and the economy nosing in the right direction, towards the sort of prosperity that often follows the sort of depression we saw in 2008, we have returned to an optimistic time in our economy.